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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But the current field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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