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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd