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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."